A hypothetical scenario exercise · 2026 – 2034

The Verification Game

How do we stop the development of ASI? There is no foolproof solution in a mistrustful world: only the minimization of odds through verifiable commitments. You are the U.S. National Security Advisor. Click the 2026 node and explore the different timelines.

THE RACE THE PAPER TREATY TRUST, BUT VERIFY FAILURE MODES Timelines 0/3 · Endings 0/2
2026 · THE CAPABILITY JUMP CLICK TO BEGIN PATH A PATH B PATH C FAILURE MODES

Faded nodes are unexplored — reach them through the timeline

Disclaimer: this scenario is purely hypothetical — an exercise for building intuitions about why, and in what form, verification is necessary. companion: IR primer · Schelling · Axelrod